The article was originally published in Serbian language on nacionalist.rs

*The article is the product of research based on theoretical and methodological considerations and publicly available data, and does not represent the position of the institution in which the author is employed.

Observed through the prism of current global events, there is no doubt that we are exposed to many challenges that affect the further development of the existing international order, including international institutions. There have been rapid changes at the global level, and the process of globalization itself has increased the number of international problems. Thus, changes in the field of finance caused by various shocks, such as the economic crisis, mass threats to the environment, terrorism and violent extremism, intercontinental migration, international organized crime and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (especially nuclear), are just some of the problems facing the modern world.

The main task for all of us, especially for the most powerful countries in the world, is to unite our forces in the fight against these phenomena. Trends that pointed to the idea of ​​politics among nations, followed by the idea of ​​world politics, mega-diplomacy, transnational state, sovereign state, namely, all these trends speak in favor of the thesis that international relations and world politics of the 21st century “will function in a way that will significantly different from the bipolar and unipolar order that marked the second half of the 20th century” (Simić, 2012). Serbia’s accession to the European Union is defined as an important national strategic goal. Certainly, the diversification of partners is necessary, and in the era of globalization and regionalization, it is completely normal and even necessary. Membership in the European Union provides opportunities for economic development and offers instruments for creating the rule of law, but nothing happens without the efforts of the Republic of Serbia to use these instruments in practice. The state itself should be both a regulator and a stimulus (Vasić, 2018).

Serbia lies in the center of the Balkans and occupies a key strategic position at the social, political and geographical crossroads between Eastern and Western Europe. Despite difficult historical relations with its neighbors and a tendency to balance its relationship with the West with historical ties with Russia, there are those who see Serbia as politically more stable than some of its neighbors. Others perceive Serbia as a driver of economic development for the entire Western Balkans. At the same time, there are those who appreciate Serbia as an important part of the geostrategic competition between the European Union (EU), the United States of America (USA) and the Russian Federation in the Western Balkans, and more recently the People’s Republic of China.

It seemed that the future of the Western Balkans actually was EU integration. Nowadays, there are many factors which indicate that this scenario has become uncertain. The main reasons for that are the lack of consolidation of democracies, but also the lethargy of those who decide on the EU enlargement process itself. Overall, this part of Europe appears to be subject to permanent uncertainty and as such may be the subject to external influences. Therefore, the main task of today’s research should be to identify the mechanisms of influence of the main international actors in the Western Balkans. International influences in the region vary: some promote liberal values, such as democracy and the rule of law. Others, conditionally speaking, encourage undemocratic values, focusing their power on certain spheres of interest. All this speaks in favor of the fact that “changes in the global international order and competition between democratic and non-democratic values ​​are measuring their strength in the Western Balkans” (Rrustemi, de Wijk et al. 2019). However, the political environment in this part of the world is subject to both sending and receiving contradictory messages. Regarding the anti-corruption efforts in general, certain progress is visible, although recent data show that countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Northern Macedonia, and Serbia are taking a step back. In the last few years, there has been a decline in enforcing the rule of law (Ibid.).

Many analysts in Europe and the United States have expressed concern about political stability in the Western Balkans. Some of the countries in the Western Balkans have gone through distressing political crises, sometimes involving third-party interference, and the economy is stagnating, while high unemployment and high immigration rates prevail. Such crises could create a vacuum in a region where international crime and terrorism could flourish (Congressional Research Service). On the other hand, the economic and political role of Russia, China and other countries is measuring its strength with the EU in Serbia, which has committed itself to fulfilling the criteria by starting accession negotiations. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully consider all the advantages and disadvantages of the newly emerging processes in international relations that are reflected in the Western Balkans, and thus in Serbia.

A new problem that has indisputably slowed down the democratization process is the economic crisis that has deeply affected countries in this part of Europe. The governments of the Western Balkans, faced with the problems of the crisis, have neglected to work on systemic reforms related to meeting the criteria for EU accession. At the same time, a significant deterioration in living standards was observed, which intensified the negative attitude of the population towards the necessary reforms. Despite these negative trends, all governments in this part of Europe have made it clear that they will continue with reforms in the coming years. Fulfilling the proclaimed positions, conditions have been created for visa liberalization, and significant progress has been made in the field of regional cooperation (mainly between Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina) with a successful fight against corruption in Croatia and organized crime in Serbia.

The Republic of Serbia is trying to balance between the interests of world political powers (the EU as a whole, China, NATO, Russia and the USA). No matter how high the price, the policy of openness to the leading powers, if really skillfully and sophisticatedly implemented, enables small states to protect their interests and reduce their dependence on the policies of the great powers. At the same time, certain political powers are becoming priorities. For example, for the countries of Central Asia, these are Russia and China; for the post-Soviet Caucasus these are Russia, Turkey and the USA; and for Serbia it is the EU and Russia (Ponomareva, 2020).

1. Importance of the Geostrategic Position of the Balkans

The Balkans had a special place in its foreign policy strategy as an area in which Russia could fulfill its interests. The territory of the Balkans, with its cultural, religious and political heritage, represented the border between Europe and Russia, therefore the Russian interest, which primarily referred to the suppression of the interests of Turkey and later the West, made its territory more than interesting for its activities. It is no coincidence that Serbia is the only one of all Eastern European countries that continuously maintains friendship with Russia and asks for help from it. Factors such as history, Orthodoxy and economic ties enabled Russia to access this part of Europe, especially at the time of the dismemberment of the former Yugoslavia. On the other hand, Serbia is an active member of the NATO program called Partnership for Peace, and in 2007, the National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia made a decision to declare military neutrality. In this regard, the fact remains that Serbia has broken the homogeneity of the Western Balkans in terms of NATO enlargement (Vasić, 2018).

Since 2000, Serbia has gone through various stages in economic development, but this has not hindered its consistent reintegration into the global economy. However, the foreign policy of the Republic of Serbia is currently facing a dilemma, given that four great powers are currently fighting for their influence in Serbia. Considering the process of diversification of foreign policy partners, each of the above-mentioned partners of Serbia has its specific interest and comparative advantage, with the EU focusing primarily on the rule of law, financial assistance and growing investment, the US on security, Russia on energy and foreign policy support. while China focuses on infrastructure and the market (Directorate General for External Policies, Policy Department, 2017).

One of the potential breakthroughs is that the world of the 21st century shows different configurations of power in different domains of politics. This dynamic change in the structure of the global political scene ennobles the “game of power“. Thus, Russia and Serbia have been conducting joint military exercises since 2016. Also, religious cooperation was quite high between both countries. On the other side, both China and Russia have invested in promoting culture and language in the region. The promotion of Chinese culture is a common feature of Chinese investments worldwide, and the Western Balkans region is no exception as it hosts four Confucius Institutes, while Russia supports the opening of its cultural and linguistic centers. It should be noted that both Russia and China are investing in deepening ties with political elites (Rrustemi, de Wijk et al. 2019).

The scale of cooperation is different in relation to the influences of political factors in Serbia itself. Therefore, Serbia should continue to implement the necessary reforms that would help revitalize society and the system in general. The role of the EU in the coming years will be to emphasize the economic and security benefits that come with accession, and Serbia should put all the advantages into practice on that path in order to strengthen its position on the international and regional political scene.

On the way to European integration, Serbia is facing several challengies. Russia’s presence in Serbia creates a certain political context because it provides Serbia with arguments in its negotiations with the EU. On the other hand, Russia’s position on Kosovo and Metohija, which has remained unchanged since February 17, 2008, in compliance with the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244, not only provides moral support to Serbian society, but additionally enables Serbia to maintain political freedom. However, Russia is no longer the main alternative to Serbia’s European path. Another no less serious player appeared in the Balkans seven years ago, and that is China (Ponomareva 2020).

The EU should adjust its position on Serbia’s approach and the challenges it faces, which are sensitive, and political in its nature. The EU institutions are examining the impact of the Chinese presence in Serbia, especially in terms of aid and investments, concluding that Belgrade considered that these activities were more in favor of Serbian interests than the interests of China. On the contrary, the EU has indirectly conditioned Serbia in its approach since the beginning of cooperation. In certain areas, such an approach has borne fruit (economic reform), while in some other areas it has not been as effective (promotion of democracy). Moreover, as already mentioned, the Serbian public has expressed its dissatisfaction with the conditionality by the EU, believing that it is precisely this conditionality that is a stumbling block on the road to full membership. On the other hand, China was interested in a wider range of goals, such as improving transport and logistics in the region, while enabling Serbia to be involved in achieving those goals.